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"The End" setlist speculation... with stats!

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  • Tony said he wanted to pick some songs that were rarely played; fingers crossed they cover every album with Ozzy. The Priest touched on all of theirs on the Epitaph tour (which was supposed to be their swan song) including Rocka Rolla!
    Last edited by Woodythewino; 12-29-2015, 05:11 PM.
    Ernie the Embryo

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    • Originally posted by 62_SG View Post
      Tony said they want to bring out some rarer songs in addition to the fan favorites.

      Well, what really qualifies as rare?

      I've gone through and looked at the songs they've played since the reunion started, finding out which songs are due for a comeback, which songs are likely to get dropped and which songs are going to be around to the very end. I'm ignoring things like instrumentals (Orchid, Embryo, etc) since they're usually paired to another song or not played at all. I'm also ignoring 13 since it's only been around for one tour.

      Songs that are always on the set:
      Black Sabbath
      War Pigs
      Paranoid
      Iron Man
      Children of the Grave
      Into the Void

      We all know these songs will be on the End setlist.

      Songs that have been on almost every set:
      N.I.B.
      Fairies Wear Boots
      Snowblind

      N.I.B and Snowblind weren't regulars in 1997, although they were played, but have been on the set from 1998 onwards. Fairies was only played at two dates in 2001 but aside from that has been steady.

      These three are extremely likely to be on the End set as well.

      Songs that have been on several sets
      Dirty Women
      Sweet Leaf
      Electric Funeral

      Dirty Women was a staple of the 13 tour and was also played during Ozzfest 2005 and the 1999 tour. Aside from the instrumental at Ozzfest 2005, Sweet Leaf hasn't been a staple of the set since 1999, only making sporadic appearances in 2004 and 2012. Electric Funeral was played during 2012 and 2013 but was dropped early in the 13 tour.

      Songs that are only on a few sets
      The Wizard
      Behind the Wall of Sleep
      After Forever
      Lord of this World
      Under the Sun
      Spiral Architect

      The Wizard was popular in 2001 and 2005 and was played in 2012 as well. Behind the Wall of Sleep was played at a few dates in 1997 before reappearing 15 years later in 2012, hanging around for the 13 tour. Under the Sun was played briefly in 2001 (the same two dates where Fairies Wear Boots was played) before coming back in 2012. Lord of this World was only a staple in 1998 and hasn't been heard from since, as was Spiral Architect. After Forever was played on the 1999 and 2005 tours.

      Songs that have only been played sporadically
      Sleeping Village
      Wheels of Confusion
      Tomorrow's Dream
      Supernaut
      Sabbath Bloody Sabbath
      Killing Yourself to Live
      Symptom of the Universe

      Sleeping Village was played as an intro to Children of the Grave at Ozzfest 2005, replacing Embryo. Wheels of Confusion and Tomorrow's Dream were played in 2012 but were left off the 13 tour. Supernaut and Symptom of the Universe have been played as instrumentals at various times, including the 13 tour. Sabbath Bloody Sabbath was played in the late 90s but it was never a mainstay due to Ozzy's vocal struggles and now exists only as an intro to Paranoid. Killing Yourself to Live was played once in 1998 (Ozzy handled it surprisingly well).

      Songs that never left the 70s
      Wicked World
      Warning
      Evil Woman
      Planet Caravan
      Hand of Doom
      Changes
      Cornucopia
      A National Acrobat
      Sabbra Cadabra
      Hole in the Sky
      Megalomania
      Back Street Kids
      Gypsy
      All Moving Parts
      Rock N' Roll Doctor
      Never Say Die

      Wicked World was a jam centerpiece of many early sets. Warning and Evil Woman were played very early on only. Hand of Doom was common on early sets but Planet Caravan was played only once. Changes was very rare as well. Cornucopia appeared on a few tours in the mid 70s. A National Acrobat was very rare but Sabbra Cadabra was on a few tours. Hole in the Sky and Megalomania never made it past the Sabotage tour. Back Street Kids and All Moving Parts didn't get so much play but Gypsy and Rock N' Roll Doctor were popular in the end days. Never Say Die was naturally only on the Never Say Die tour.

      Songs that were never played... ever
      Solitude
      St. Vitus Dance
      Who Are You?
      Looking For Today
      Thrill of it All
      Am I Going Insane?
      The Writ
      You Won't Change Me
      She's Gone (I assume)
      The rest of Never Say Die

      A lot of these are no surprises, although I'd have thought they'd play more than one NSD song on the tour.

      So what does it all mean?

      Well, assuming Sabbath structures their set (90~ minutes of songs plus an instrumental/drum solo), which I think is likely considering how well it worked,

      This is my guess at the set (out of order):

      Black Sabbath
      The Wizard
      N.I.B.
      War Pigs
      Paranoid
      Iron Man
      Electric Funeral
      Hand of Doom
      Fairies Wear Boots
      Sweet Leaf
      Children of the Grave
      Into the Void
      Tomorrow's Dream
      Snowblind
      God Is Dead

      This is pretty conservative, which I think makes it more likely. The only real stunner is Hand of Doom which would be making its first live appearance in 45 years or so. It and Planet Caravan are the only songs off Paranoid they haven't played since they reunited so I think it's overdue. Everything else was performed at the O2 Academy show, save for God Is Dead, but didn't make it to the actual tour. They might play more 13 songs or different songs from that album but I have a feeling they'll keep it to their big new single and save the rest of the set for the old stuff.

      Well thats my guess anyway. What about you guys?
      You're pretty spot on so far!
      Ernie the Embryo

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      • Originally posted by Woodythewino View Post
        You're pretty spot on so far!
        I was wrong about a few but I'm glad I was right about Hand of Doom being one of the 70s gems they're digging up.

        Accounting for a drum solo (and assuming Children of the Grave and Iron Man are on the set) right now they're hanging at around 80 minutes of music. Theres probably another 20 or so on the set based on the 13 tour.

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        • Originally posted by 62_SG View Post
          I was wrong about a few but I'm glad I was right about Hand of Doom being one of the 70s gems they're digging up.

          Accounting for a drum solo (and assuming Children of the Grave and Iron Man are on the set) right now they're hanging at around 80 minutes of music. Theres probably another 20 or so on the set based on the 13 tour.
          I just want to hear something from each album. Maybe Oz can alter a few to suit his range.
          Ernie the Embryo

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